The bombshell plan to ditch London Underground drivers - and Sadiq Khan's £20bn warning

On January 10, 1863, the London Underground opened its first line between Paddington and Farringdon, marking the start of what has now firmly established itself as an indisposable part of the UK's capital city. The following decades saw a litany of developments and advances, as the metropolis expanded and Londoners and visitors took to the subterranean system. Electric traction was rolled out in 1890, and the formation of the Underground Electric Railways Company of London in 1902 led to yet more expansion. The first trains were powered by steam, producing copious amounts of soot and smoke.

The last of these classic models was withdrawn from service in 1971, and the Tube was henceforth fully electric. Both generations of locomotives needed drivers, upon whom millions of people depend every single day. But the future of the world's most iconic subway may look a lot different, as it has been suggested that the network could see fully automatic trains, in a move that would ditch the man or woman at the controls. Reform UK's only London Assembly Member, Alex Wilson, told the Express that his party would, in the long-term, work towards "progressive automation of Tube lines".

The Victoria, Jubilee, Central, Northern, District, Circle, Hammersmith and City and Metropolitan lines are already semi-automated, but still require a human operator for essential functions, such as opening and closing the doors and assisting in emergencies.

In order to make them driverless, it was estimated in 2021 that Transport for London (TfL) would have to fork out at least £10billion, which means the figure would most likely be much higher today.

Indeed, Sir Sadiq Khan, who is the Chair of TfL, said in December that, including "optimism bias", the Department for Transport (DfT) believes that the total would be nearly £20billion for just three sections of the Tube: £4.9billion would be required to convert the Piccadilly line, £4.4billion to alter the Bakerloo line and around £10billion to adapt the Central line.

The Mayor of London added: "The most practicable conversion to driverless operation would be to coincide with the introduction of new rolling stock, signalling and platform edge doors as part of a line upgrade.

"The entirety of this work would cost billions of pounds on each line."

One of the conditions of TfL's 2021 funding agreement with the Government was to examine the feasibility of producing a viable business case for implementing driverless trains on the Waterloo and City and Piccadilly lines.

A 2023 feasibility report from the DfT stated that there are "no inherent technical impediments to the conversion of most lines" to being fully driverless, although "unique features" of the London Underground would need to be considered.

It also described the economic case for doing so as strong.

Introducing the necessary technology, including new platform edge doors (PEDs), extra cameras, potentially deploying AI to help safeguard the public; new train signalling and reengineered stations, would require significant Government investment, in addition to existing capital requirements, and would take many years to implement, it is thought.

This is not to mention depot changes that would need to be finalised, such as train control systems and ensuring staff are protected from automatic train movements if they are working trackside.

The 2023 DfT report noted that the installation of PEDs would "improve safety and ambience".

It also mentioned that "more robust fortification" would be needed to ensure the segregation of customers and the automated network.

It seems that transport authority officials would currently rather focus on implementing other upgrades across its network, including greater automation where there is a clear customer and reliability benefit, such as through the four lines modernisation programme on the Circle, District, Hammersmith and City and Metropolitan lines.

The Express understands that Sir Sadiq is not currently pursuing driverless trains due to the cost in terms of new trains and technology.

A spokesperson for TfL said simply: "There are currently no plans to introduce driverless trains on London Underground."

However, Professor Sabih Khisaf, an Institute of Civil Engineers (ICE) fellow and infrastructure lead at Hyperloop Transportation Technologies told the Express that making the Tube fully automated is not only feasible but already a reality in many cities worldwide, with metro systems in Dubai, Doha, Vancouver, Singapore, Copenhagen and Paris having driverless trains.

The French capital is putting London to shame on the automation front, as it has three fully driverless metro lines - 1, the first to be converted in 2012; 4, adapted in 2024; and 14, driverless since it was finished in 1998 - with 13 currently being converted.

This work is expected to be complete in 2035.

New lines 15, 16, 17 and 18 are also planned, which would run automatically as part of the around £34billion Grand Paris Express project.

Dubai's rail system is completely driverless and has two sections, the Red and Green Lines, featuring air-conditioned, Wi-Fi-enabled stations and trains.

Denmark's fully automated network has been in operation for over two decades, with the first lines opening in 2002.

Professor Khisaf added: "However, for older and more complex systems, the transition requires significant investment and negotiation with stakeholders. While not commonly practical in the immediate future, the long-term trend suggests that automation will become the standard for urban underground transport systems."

The cost of a fully automated driverless metro system is large and depends hugely on local conditions, the expert added, as well as design choices and how much of the work is underground.

For a modern new line that is between 20 and 30 kilometres long in a developed city, costs are likely to be in the range of around £74million to £148million per kilometre, possibly more, Professor Khisaf said.

He added: "A fully automated driverless metro system is more than just trains without

drivers, it requires a holistic rethinking of urban transit using cutting edge technology.

"From Communication-Based Train Control signalling and AI traffic management to predictive maintenance and cybersecurity, each component must work seamlessly together.

"The ultimate goal is to create a transport network that is safe, efficient, resilient, and capable of adapting to the dynamic needs of a modern city.

"While many of these technologies already exist in early forms, their full integration into a large-scale underground system remains the next frontier of urban mobility."

Professor Khisaf also highlighted that a new mode of automated transport system for passenger and freight is being developed, known as the Hyperloop System.

The high-speed transportation system involves specialised pods being accelerated through a low-pressure tube to achieve speeds of up to 745mph.

Another expert, Dr. Piers Connor, calls the prospect of driverless Tube trains a "political myth".

He wrote in 2021: "Operating trains is complex. It involves a vast range of micro-calculations and micro-decisions on everything from the speed of approach or departure, to when doors should open, to how trains on the same (and sometimes other) lines should flow around each other.

"Both human beings and computers are capable of doing all these things. Humans are, ultimately, just natural computers. But the more complex the decision-making required on a particular transport system, the more knowledge and calculations are required for it to be done within acceptable safety parameters."

He added: "What this means is that the more complex the transport system, the more learning required and thus the less suited it is to automatic operation.

"Because, at least until the invention of 'true' Artificial Intelligence, learning is an area in which 'wetware' (that is, humans) remains superior to software. Wetware learns things faster and is quicker to adapt when things go wrong. And the more complex - and the older - your transport system is, the more potential there is for things to go wrong."

Dr Connor told the Express: "The annual interest on the billions of pounds TfL would need to borrow to put driverless trains on the Underground would cost more than paying for drivers."

He added: "Eliminating drivers wouldn't stop strikes by other staff on stations, in maintenance depots and control rooms who could quickly stop the system, like Docklands."

In September, a strike on the Underground brought the capital to a halt, as RMT members, drivers as well as station staff, walked out in a dispute over pay and conditions.

On Monday, the RMT announced that it had received an improved pay offer of a three-year deal, consisting of a 3.4% uplift in year one and a straight RPI increase in year two and three, from London Underground.

The union's general secretary Eddie Dempsey said: "This offer will now be discussed by the national executive committee and in consultation with the membership.

"As a result, the union remains in dispute with London Underground subject to the will of the membership under our democratic structures."

Mr Dempsey told the Express: "Reform claims that they would bring in driverless tube trains are not serious as it would require a combined upgrade of rolling stock, signalling, and platform infrastructure across the entire network."

Mick Whelan, the general secretary of ASLEF, said: "Driverless trains are simply not viable on the infrastructure of Britain's railway network - a testament to the imagination and skill of our Victorian engineers, but now very old."

He added that even the automated Docklands Light Railway (DLR) is staffed with a train captain who can drive the train when needed.

Mr Wheelan added: "Planes are fly-by-wire, but all the evidence shows that passengers - on trains as well as planes - want a driver or pilot in the hot seat when the technology goes wrong, as it always, inevitably, does."

It is true that the threat of a strike would still loom over the Tube, as humans would still be involved at stations to some degree.

This is unless some kind of robot is developed that can do the job of station staff.